IPO listing gain
Work out your gain or loss if an IPO lists above or below its issue price.
Stocks and trading
IPO allotment odds calculator
See the chance of receiving a lot in a retail IPO for a subscription figure you enter, and how applications add up.
times
The multiple shown for the retail individual investor category, for example 12.5. A figure you enter.
The page assumes each is valid and has its own PAN. Check the offer document for the rules on multiple applications.
1 is the cautious choice: it assumes every applicant bid for a single lot. If others bid for more, your chance is higher.
per share
shares
With the price band, shows one lot against the two lakh rupee retail limit.
At 12.5 times subscribed, 4 applications give a 28.4% chance of at least one lot. A chance is not a promise.
- Chance of at least one lot
- 28.4%Under the assumptions below. A chance is not a promise.
- Chance for one application
- 8%
- Expected lots from all applications
- 0.32Applications x the chance for one
How applications add up
- 1 application
- 8%
- 2 applications
- 15.4%
- 3 applications
- 22.1%
- 5 applications
- 34.1%
- 10 applications
- 56.6%
- Applications for an even chanceAt least a 50 percent chance of one lot
- 9
One lot and the retail limit
- Cost of one lot at the upper band
- ₹15,000
- Lots that fit within ₹2,00,000A retail bid is capped at two lakh rupees
- 13
What this assumes
- Allotment in an oversubscribed retail issue is by lottery, and every application has the same chance whatever number of lots it is for. Bidding for more lots does not raise it.
- The subscription multiple counts shares bid, so it is turned into a number of applications using the average lots you entered.
- Your applications are treated as independent draws. The real draw is without replacement, so the true figure is slightly different.
- Each application must be a valid one, with its own PAN. This page does not check that.
- This describes the figures you entered. It does not predict what comes next.
What next
Dividend yield
Turn a dividend per share into a yield, the income on your holding and the yield on what you paid.Position size
Work out how many shares a trade involves if you decide in advance how much you can afford to lose.Brokerage
See every charge on a trade, from brokerage to taxes, and what you actually keep.
How it works
The SEBI rules for issues on the main board say the allotment to each retail individual investor cannot be less than the minimum bid lot, if shares are available in that category, and any shares left over are shared proportionately. The regulations' own illustration shows what that means when applications outnumber lots: the investors who receive the minimum bid lot are picked by lottery, and every application has the same chance whatever number of lots it asked for. A retail bid is one of up to two lakh rupees.
Chance for one application = lots on offer / applications. With one lot per application this is 1 / subscription
A worked example
At a retail subscription of 12.5 times, with every applicant bidding one lot, one application has a 1 / 12.5 = 8% chance. Five applications from five different PANs have 1 - (1 - 0.08)^5 = 34.1% chance of at least one lot. If the category is subscribed 1 time or less, every valid application can be allotted in full.
The subscription multiple that exchanges publish counts shares bid, and an application can be for several lots. If other applicants bid for more than one lot on average, there are fewer applications than the multiple suggests, and your chance is higher. The "average lots others bid" box adjusts for that, and the default of 1 is the cautious choice.
What it leaves out
- Anything about the issue or the company. The page does not say whether to apply.
- Whether your applications are valid. The offer document and your broker say how many applications one PAN may make; this page assumes each needs its own PAN.
- The final subscription figure. It is only known when the issue closes, and it is a number you must enter.
- Any rule that changed after the copy of the regulations linked under the sources. Check the offer document and SEBI for the latest.
Questions people ask
How are IPO shares allotted to retail investors?
In the regulations, each retail individual investor’s allotment is not less than the minimum bid lot, subject to availability. When there are more applications than lots, the investors who get that lot are chosen by lottery. This page uses that rule in its simplest form.
Does applying for more lots improve my chance?
In an oversubscribed retail issue, no. The illustration in the regulations gives every application the same chance whatever number of lots it asked for, and the winner receives the minimum bid lot. A larger bid ties up more money without changing the chance.
Can I apply from several accounts?
This page simply multiplies the chance by the number of applications you enter and assumes each is valid, with its own PAN. Whether and how several applications are allowed is set by the offer document and the rules in force, so check with your broker. The page does not check validity.
Why is the answer only an estimate?
The real chance depends on how many valid applications are received, which is known only after the issue closes, and the subscription figure you enter is a snapshot. The page also treats your applications as independent draws, which is a close approximation, not exact.
What is the two lakh rupee limit?
A retail individual investor is one who bids for securities worth up to two lakh rupees. A bid above that falls in another category, where allotment works differently. If you enter a price band and lot size, the page shows how many lots fit within the limit.